BusinessEurope Economic Outlook Spring 2019 - EU growth falters
EU economic growth fell considerably in the second half of 2018, reflecting both declining global demand and one-off factors impacting on domestic activity. Whilst there are signs that domestic demand in particular bounced back at the start of 2019, business federations have revised down their growth forecasts with economic growth estimated at 1.6% in the EU and 1.3% in the Euro-area in 2019, with growth picking up in 2020 to 1.7% in the EU and 1.5% in the euro area.
Risks to the outlook remain on the downside, with - alongside the continuing possibility of a damaging, no-deal Brexit - the recent escalation of trade tensions, particularly between the USA and China, which are an increasing concern for EU businesses. The outlook considers estimates from the ECB, the OECD and the IMF; all show that trade will be significantly hit, damaging not only Chinese and American economic growth, but also significantly impacting EU trade. A special article examines the recent slowdown in the Chinese economy in more detail, and in particular, how this has impacted EU member states’ exports to China.
Individual country evaluations
Answers to this spring's questionnaire were received in May 2019.
| Real GDP growth % | Inflation % | Unemployment % | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2020 | 2019 | 2020 | 2019 | 2020 | |
| EU28 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 6.5 | 6.3 |
| Euro-area | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 7.4 | 7.1 |
| Austria | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Belgium | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 6.0 | 6.1 |
| Cyprus | 3.6 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 7.0 | 6.0 |
| Estonia | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 5.6 | 5.7 |
| Finland | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 6.7 | 6.7 |
| France | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 8.6 | 8.4 |
| Germany | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 3.1 |
| Greece | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 18.0 | 16.6 |
| Ireland | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 5.5 | 5.4 |
| Italy | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 10.7 | 10.6 |
| Latvia | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 7.0 | 6.5 |
| Lithuania | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 6.0 | 5.9 |
| Luxembourg | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| Malta | 5.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| Netherlands | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 3.8 | 3.8 |
| Portugal | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 6.1 | 5.5 |
| Slovak Republic | 4.4 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| Slovenia | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 4.3 | 3.9 |
| Spain | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 13.8 | 12.4 |
| Bulgaria | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 4.8 | 4.3 |
| Croatia | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 8.0 | 7.7 |
| Czech Republic | 2.8 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Denmark | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 4.7 | 4.5 |
| Hungary | 3.5 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Poland | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 3.5 |
| Romania | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 4.0 |
| Sweden | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 6.2 | 6.4 |
| United Kingdom | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 4.3 |