BusinessEurope Economic Outlook Autumn 2017 - The EU's economic recovery picks up momentum
According to our Autumn 2017 Economic Outlook, we have recently seen a strengthening of the EU economy. We have revised our 2017 growth expectations upwards for both the EU and the Euro-area by 0.4 percentage points to 2.3% and 2.1%, respectively. For 2018 we revised growth up by 0.3 pp to 2.1% for the EU and 2.0% for the Euro-area.
Consumer spending is forecast to remain the key driving factor behind growth, with rising consumer confidence bolstered by relatively strong job creation across the EU and increasing labour force participation. With an increasing number of companies starting to run up against capacity constraints, investment growth is expected to see a moderate increase, but growth remains insufficient to swiftly close the pre-crisis investment gap: at the current rate of investment and GDP growth, it would still take up to 2023 to close the pre-crisis gap, whilst it would take even longer in some countries. Finally, exports are likely to be somewhat dampened by a higher euro exchange rate, but this is partly counterbalanced by an improving global trading environment.
Individual country evaluations
Answers to this autumn's questionnaire were received in October 2017.
| Real GDP growth % | Inflation % | Unemployment % | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 2018 | 2017 | 2018 | 2017 | 2018 | |
| EU28 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 7.9 | 7.5 |
| Euro-area | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 9.2 | 8.5 |
| Austria | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 5.6 | 5.4 |
| Belgium | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 7.4 | 7.1 |
| Cyprus | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 11.0 | 9.5 |
| Estonia | 4.3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 6.9 | 8.3 |
| Finland | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 8.5 | 8.1 |
| France | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 9.1 | 8.7 |
| Germany | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 5.7 | 5.5 |
| Greece | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 22.0 | 20.8 |
| Ireland | 4.2 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 6.5 | 5.8 |
| Italy | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 11.2 | 10.6 |
| Latvia | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 9.2 | 8.7 |
| Lithuania | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 7.6 | 7.2 |
| Luxembourg | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 6.1 | 6.0 |
| Malta | 4.6 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| Netherlands | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4.9 | 4.3 |
| Portugal | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 9.0 | 8.2 |
| Slovak Republic | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 9.2 | 8.7 |
| Slovenia | 4.4 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 6.8 | 6.2 |
| Spain | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 17.1 | 14.9 |
| Bulgaria | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 6.1 | 5.8 |
| Croatia | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 11.6 | 10.5 |
| Czech Republic | 3.9 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.9 |
| Denmark | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 5.9 | 5.5 |
| Hungary | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 4.0 |
| Poland | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 4.6 | 4.5 |
| Romania | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 5.3 |
| Sweden | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 6.6 | 6.5 |
| United Kingdom | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| Norway | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 4.3 | 4.1 |