BusinessEurope Economic Outlook Spring 2017 - The EU economic recovery continues
Released on 9 June, BusinessEurope’s Spring 2017 Economic Outlook points to a continuation of the EU economic recovery. We expect growth of 1.9% in the EU and 1.7% in the Euro-area for 2017, which is slightly higher (0.3 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively) than what we forecast last autumn. For 2018, we expect growth to continue at a similar pace with 1.8% in the EU and 1.7% in the Euro-area.
Consumer spending is likely to remain the key driver of growth, supported by improving labour market conditions. The external environment, which posed an important challenge to company exports last year, is set to slightly brighten up this year. Investment is expected to improve somehow, in particular as companies increasingly reach the limits of their current production capacity. However, investment has yet to show a more robust pick-up. At the current rate of GDP and investment growth, it would take up to 2024 to bridge the existing investment gap compared to pre-crisis levels.
Individual country evaluations
Answers to this spring's questionnaire were received in April 2017.
| Real GDP growth % | Inflation % | Unemployment % | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 2018 | 2017 | 2018 | 2017 | 2018 | |
| EU28 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 7.7 | 7.3 |
| Euro-area | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 8.6 | 8.1 |
| Austria | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 5.9 | 6.0 |
| Belgium | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 7.4 | 7.0 |
| Cyprus | 2.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 11.0 | 10.0 |
| Estonia | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 7.2 | 7.5 |
| Finland | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 8.4 | 8.1 |
| France | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 9.4 | 9.0 |
| Germany | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 3.3 |
| Greece | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 22.0 | 21.0 |
| Ireland | 3.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 6.8 | 6.2 |
| Italy | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 11.0 | 10.5 |
| Latvia | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 9.2 | 8.7 |
| Lithuania | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 7.2 | 7.1 |
| Luxembourg | 4.2 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 6.2 | 6.1 |
| Malta | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| Netherlands | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 4.9 | 4.7 |
| Portugal | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 9.9 | 9.0 |
| Slovak Republic | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 8.5 | 8.0 |
| Slovenia | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 7.0 | 6.4 |
| Spain | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 17.5 | 15.8 |
| Bulgaria | 3.7 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 8.2 | 8.0 |
| Croatia | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.6 | /// | 13.9 | /// |
| Czech Republic | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 3.2 |
| Denmark | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 6.3 | 6.3 |
| Hungary | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 4.0 |
| Poland | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| Romania | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 5.3 |
| Sweden | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 6.7 | 6.5 |
| United Kingdom* | 1.3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 5.2 | 5.3 |
| Norway | 1.9 | 1.5 | /// | /// | 4.4 | 4.2 |
* The UK forecast dates back to November 2016.